China · 2024
1.013World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗
births per woman · WDI period TFR
Population · fertility transition
Total fertility rate
Total fertility rate is not “how many children the average woman actually had this year”. It combines the age-specific fertility rates observed in a year into a period measure. This page uses one archived World Bank/WDI snapshot for China, the World and 14 other major economies, with no interpolation.
World · 2024
2.188World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗
WLD World aggregate
Fixed 15 economies · low to high
#3
China was the 3rd-lowest in 2024; Korea was lowest at 0.748
Below the 2.1 reference
14/15
of the 15 selected economies; 2.1 is only an approximate replacement reference
Three concepts to separate first
TFR, births and population growth are different things
TFR combines one year’s age-specific fertility rates into a hypothetical full childbearing-life measure. The number of births also depends on the number and age structure of women, while population growth also depends on mortality, migration and demographic momentum. A TFR below 2.1 therefore does not imply immediate population decline in the same year.
Method boundaries
TFR ≠ actual average births per woman that year
TFR ≠ average children per household
2.1 ≈ approximate replacement level, not a universal exact constant
Below 2.1 ≠ immediate population decline
Lower rank ≠ better or worse social performance
01
What TFR measures
Compressing one year of age-specific fertility rates into one period measure
WDI defines TFR as the number of children a woman would bear if she lived to the end of her childbearing years and experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed in the specified year throughout those years. It is useful for comparing fertility levels across years and economies, but it is not the completed family size of a real cohort of women.
02
China’s long-run change
From high fertility to well below the world average
China and the World use the same WDI series from 1960 through 2024. The 2.1 line is only an approximate replacement reference. In this archived series, 1991 is the first consecutive-year crossing where the prior year was at or above 2.1 and the current year below it; this is a descriptive threshold crossing, not a single causal date for policy effects or population change.
China and the World
Total fertility rate, 1960–2024
One WDI snapshot; 2.1 is an approximate replacement-level reference. China was at 1.013 in 2024, versus 2.188 for the World aggregate.
View eight milestone values
| Year | China | World |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 4.451 | 4.686 |
| 1970 | 6.085 | 4.840 |
| 1980 | 2.739 | 3.731 |
| 1990 | 2.514 | 3.307 |
| 2000 | 1.628 | 2.730 |
| 2010 | 1.687 | 2.568 |
| 2020 | 1.236 | 2.276 |
| 2024 | 1.013 | 2.188 |
Source: World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗ · WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN; 2.1 is an approximate reference onlychinainfigures.com
03
What 2.1 means
“Below replacement” does not mean “population immediately shrinks”
In low-mortality populations, around 2.1 is commonly used as an approximate generational-replacement reference, but the exact level depends on female survival, the sex ratio at birth and other demographic conditions. Even below 2.1, population can continue to grow for some time because age structure, longevity, migration and demographic momentum differ.
04
East Asia comparison
A shared move toward low fertility, but at different speeds and times
China, Korea, Japan, Singapore and Viet Nam all experienced large declines, but crossed the 2.1 reference at different times. Similar low-TFR outcomes do not prove that these economies shared the same policy, housing, education, marriage or labour-market mechanisms.
East Asia and nearby economies
China, Korea, Japan, Singapore and Viet Nam
Every line uses the same WDI indicator from 1960–2024; the 2.1 line is a reading aid only.
Source: World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗ · Same indicator, same WDI vintage, complete 65-year coveragechinainfigures.com
05
Other major economies
Timing of the fertility transition matters more than a single-year rank
Many European and North American economies moved into low-fertility ranges earlier, while Brazil, Mexico, India and other emerging economies followed later. Placing China in these long-run paths shows when decline began, how long it lasted and whether fertility rebounded or fluctuated—not just one 2024 snapshot.
Long-run major-economy comparison
Fertility transition across nine economies
China, United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom, India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia; complete 1960–2024 coverage for all.
Source: World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗ · All values use the same WDI period TFR; missing values would not be interpolatedchinainfigures.com
06
How to read the animated ranking
A fixed 15-economy set, sorted from lower to higher TFR
The animation is not a “global lowest-fertility countries” league table. It uses a fixed 15-economy comparison set. Sorting uses actual TFR values directly—never negated values. Rank 1 means only the lowest TFR within this set in that year, not greater development, happiness, equality or policy success.
Fixed-set animated ranking
TFR across 15 major economies: low to high
All 15 economies have observed WDI values in every year from 1960 through 2024.
2024
Sort rule: Actual TFR from low to high; fixed 15-economy set; no negation, zero fill or interpolation.
Exact-value table for the current year
| Low-to-high rank | Economy | TFR |
|---|
Source: World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗ · Fixed 15 economies; actual values sorted ascending; 1960–2024chinainfigures.com
Latest complete common year
2024 comparison across 15 economies
Fourteen economies were below the approximate 2.1 reference; Indonesia was at 2.115, slightly above it.
| Rank | Economy | TFR | Relative to 2.1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Korea, Rep. | 0.748 | below |
| 2 | Singapore | 0.970 | below |
| 3 | China | 1.013 | below |
| 4 | Japan | 1.150 | below |
| 5 | Italy | 1.180 | below |
| 6 | Germany | 1.360 | below |
| 7 | Sweden | 1.430 | below |
| 8 | United Kingdom | 1.551 | below |
| 9 | France | 1.610 | below |
| 10 | Brazil | 1.614 | below |
| 11 | United States | 1.627 | below |
| 12 | Mexico | 1.892 | below |
| 13 | Viet Nam | 1.895 | below |
| 14 | India | 1.962 | below |
| 15 | Indonesia | 2.115 | above |
Source: World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗ · Fixed 15-economy set; same WDI definition for 2024chinainfigures.com
Threshold-crossing timeline
First consecutive observed crossing from ≥2.1 to <2.1
This is a mechanical description of the same WDI series, not a causal break. Indonesia does not show such a crossing in 1960–2024.
| Economy | Crossing year | Prior-year TFR | Crossing-year TFR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1966 | 2.140 | 1.580 |
| Sweden | 1968 | 2.280 | 2.070 |
| Germany | 1970 | 2.210 | 2.030 |
| United States | 1972 | 2.266 | 2.010 |
| United Kingdom | 1973 | 2.200 | 2.040 |
| France | 1975 | 2.180 | 2.090 |
| Singapore | 1975 | 2.350 | 2.070 |
| Italy | 1976 | 2.170 | 2.040 |
| Korea, Rep. | 1983 | 2.390 | 2.060 |
| China | 1991 | 2.514 | 1.934 |
| Viet Nam | 1998 | 2.274 | 2.098 |
| Brazil | 2002 | 2.162 | 2.081 |
| Mexico | 2016 | 2.137 | 2.086 |
| India | 2020 | 2.120 | 2.047 |
No observed crossing: Indonesia
Source: World Bank WDI · total fertility rate ↗ · 2.1 is an approximate reference; crossing year is not a policy or population-decline start datechinainfigures.com
07
What TFR cannot answer
One TFR curve cannot by itself explain marriage, costs, policy or future population
TFR does not directly tell us how many babies were born, desired family size, fertility intentions, marriage timing, childcare cost, housing pressure, policy effectiveness or future population size. Those questions require age-specific fertility, birth counts, the age structure of women, marriage, migration, income, education, housing, childcare and population projections.
Period measure
Not completed cohort family size
TFR combines age-specific rates from one year; real cohorts experience fertility rates from many different years.
2.1 reference
Approximate, not universal
Exact replacement fertility varies with female survival, the sex ratio at birth and other demographic conditions.
Population momentum
Population may still grow after low TFR
A young age structure and migration can keep total population growing after fertility falls below replacement.
Ranking boundary
Low fertility is not a good/bad league table
The animated ranking shows only the numeric order of TFR in a fixed 15-economy set and carries no policy or social-value judgement.
Downloads and revisions
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Download CSV ↓Data file updated: 8 Aug 2026
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Total fertility rate indicator prepared
Prepared World Bank/WDI total fertility rate data for China, World and 14 other major economies from 1960–2024, plus an approximate 2.1 reference, fixed-set animated ranking and first observed threshold-crossing table.
Related sources: World Bank ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Data downloads and revision timeline added
Added page-level formal-data CSV files, chart-level CSV/PNG/SVG exports and a bilingual revision timeline to all indicator pages.
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed