Development investment
8.2788NBS · 2025 ↗
trillion yuan · 2025
Population, society and living standards · housing market
Investment, construction, sales, completed-but-unsold floorspace, developer funding and residential prices are different flows, stocks or indexes. They cannot be added into one property-market total.
Development investment
8.2788NBS · 2025 ↗
trillion yuan · 2025
Sales floorspace
8.8101
100m m² · annual flow
Sales value
8.3937
trillion yuan · annual flow
Unsold floorspace
7.6632
100m m² · year-end stock
Second-hand transaction floorspace
7.3685
100m m² · 2025 urban online-signed contracts
Derived residential transaction value
10,004.91
yuan/m² · not a national price index
01 · What the statistics actually measure
Investment, starts, completions, sales and developer funds are annual flows. Construction includes projects spanning years. Unsold floorspace is a year-end stock of completed saleable space. The 70-city data are indexes with 100 as the comparison benchmark.
Unsold floorspace ≠ national vacant housing
Sales value ÷ area ≠ constant-quality house-price index
02 · The long-cycle backdrop
This section does not present these variables as an unreported house-price regression model. They separately describe the demand base, housing conditions, financial leverage and local land finance. The national commercial-housing average is composition-sensitive and is not a constant-quality house-price index.
How to read the long cycle
Every conclusion below is calculated from, or directly reads, the archived and governed data already shown on this page. They describe long-run co-movement, regime differences and measurement boundaries without turning correlation into a single causal formula for house prices.
The national commercial-housing average rose from 2,063 yuan/m² in 1998 to 9,527.36 yuan/m² in 2025, about 4.6 times the starting level. It also moved from 3,864 in 2007 down to 3,800 in 2008 and up to 4,681 in 2009. The long cycle was not a straight line, and changes in city, location, dwelling size and quality mix affect the national average.
The resident-population urbanization rate rose from 33.35% in 1998 to 49.95% in 2010, a gain of 16.60 percentage points. From 2020 to 2025 it rose from 63.89% to 67.89%, a 4.00-point gain. The demand base is still expanding, but the high-urbanization experience of the earlier period should not be mechanically projected forward.
Different official measures report 18.7 m² under the historical city measure in 1998, 31.6 m² in the urban-household survey in 2010, 38.6 m² in the 2020 census, and an official 2025 statement of “over 40 m²”. Together they show long-run improvement in housing conditions, but the three methods are not one unchanged series and cannot support a fabricated continuous growth rate.
M2 increased from 10.45 trillion yuan in 1998 to 340.29 trillion yuan in 2025, about 32.6 times as large. Personal housing loan balances, however, fell from 38.91 trillion yuan at end-Q3 2022 to 37.01 trillion yuan at end-2025, down about 4.9%. M2 growth can no longer be read as synonymous with households adding mortgage leverage.
Revenue from transfers of state-owned land-use rights fell from 8.7051 trillion yuan in 2021 to 4.1518 trillion yuan in 2025, a decline of about 52.3%. This is a major change in government-fund budget revenue, but it is not residential land-supply area and must not be translated into an identical percentage decline in residential land supply.
From 2021 to 2025, real-estate development investment fell from 14.7602 to 8.2788 trillion yuan, about 43.9%. Commercial-housing sales floorspace fell from 17.9433 to 8.8101 hundred-million m², about 50.9%, while year-end unsold floorspace rose from 5.1023 to 7.6632 hundred-million m², about 50.2%.
By 2025, urbanization and M2 were still rising, but personal housing loan balances had fallen, land-transfer revenue was far below its 2021 high, and real-estate investment and sales floorspace had contracted sharply. The defensible conclusion is not that one variable “determines house prices”, but that several conditions that once expanded in the same broad direction are no longer moving together.
Reading rule: the national commercial-housing average is composition-sensitive; housing-area methods are not forcibly spliced; the 2025 housing-area statement remains only “over 40 m²”; urbanization and M2 are now complete annual series, while any remaining unobserved years stay missing rather than being interpolated.
03 · Investment and the construction cycle
Construction floorspace includes new starts, continuing and resumed projects, and projects completed during the year. It is therefore much larger than annual starts or completions. Investment is not housing market value.
04 · Sales and inventory
Sales floorspace is based on formal contract area. Unsold floorspace covers completed commercial housing available for sale or rent but not yet sold or rented. It is not all vacant housing and cannot be derived as completions minus sales.
NBS · sales and unsold definitions ↗This is the total contract floorspace of urban second-hand housing transactions recorded through online signing during the reporting year. It is published in the NBS annual statistical communiqué and attributed there to MOHURD. It is a different statistical object from developer-reported new-commercial-housing sales floorspace and should not be added to it as one national housing-market total.
| Year | Second-hand online-signing floorspace, 100m m² | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.0882 | NBS · 2023 second-hand housing transactions ↗ |
| 2024 | 7.1812 | NBS · 2024 second-hand housing transactions ↗ |
| 2025 | 7.3685 | NBS · 2025 second-hand housing transactions ↗ |
05 · What sales value divided by area means
Dividing same-year sales value by floorspace gives average contract value per square metre. City, location, dwelling size, quality and housing-type mix all affect it, so it cannot replace a constant-quality price index.
06 · Residential price directions in 70 cities
An index of 100 means no change from the comparison period. New and second-hand homes are separate markets, and the 70 cities are not all Chinese cities. The page counts directions and does not calculate a simple average.
NBS · 70-city home prices ↗07 · Where developer funds come from
Domestic loans, self-raised funds, deposits and advance receipts, and personal mortgages are categories within funds received by developers. Personal mortgages here are not household mortgage balances, and the total is not all property-sector financing.
08 · Real estate, GDP and household wealth are different concepts
New construction contributes investment and value added, rented housing provides actual rental services, and owner-occupied housing provides imputed services in national accounts. Housing services, development investment, transaction values, house prices and household housing assets answer different questions.
NBS · housing services and GDP ↗Annual exact values
| Year | Investment tn yuan | Construction 100m m² | Starts 100m m² | Completions 100m m² | Sales 100m m² | Sales value tn yuan | Unsold 100m m² | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 6.1740 | 50.7959 | 19.0083 | 8.9244 | 10.9946 | 5.9119 | 2.7194 | Release ↗ |
| 2012 | 7.1804 | 57.3418 | 17.7334 | 9.9425 | 11.1304 | 6.4456 | 3.6460 | Release ↗ |
| 2013 | 8.6013 | 66.5572 | 20.1208 | 10.1435 | 13.0551 | 8.1428 | 4.9295 | Release ↗ |
| 2014 | 9.5036 | 72.6482 | 17.9592 | 10.7459 | 12.0649 | 7.6292 | 6.2169 | Release ↗ |
| 2015 | 9.5979 | 73.5693 | 15.4454 | 10.0039 | 12.8495 | 8.7281 | 7.1853 | Release ↗ |
| 2016 | 10.2581 | 75.8975 | 16.6928 | 10.6128 | 15.7349 | 11.7627 | 6.9539 | Release ↗ |
| 2017 | 10.9799 | 78.1484 | 17.8654 | 10.1486 | 16.9408 | 13.3701 | 5.8923 | Release ↗ |
| 2018 | 12.0264 | 82.2300 | 20.9342 | 9.3550 | 17.1654 | 14.9973 | 5.2414 | Release ↗ |
| 2019 | 13.2194 | 89.3821 | 22.7154 | 9.5942 | 17.1558 | 15.9725 | 4.9821 | Release ↗ |
| 2020 | 14.1443 | 92.6759 | 22.4433 | 9.1218 | 17.6086 | 17.3613 | 4.9850 | Release ↗ |
| 2021 | 14.7602 | 97.5387 | 19.8895 | 10.1412 | 17.9433 | 18.1930 | 5.1023 | Release ↗ |
| 2022 | 13.2895 | 90.4999 | 12.0587 | 8.6222 | 13.5837 | 13.3308 | 5.6366 | Release ↗ |
| 2023 | 11.0913 | 83.8364 | 9.5376 | 9.9831 | 11.1735 | 11.6622 | 6.7295 | Release ↗ |
| 2024 | 10.0280 | 73.3247 | 7.3893 | 7.3743 | 9.7385 | 9.6750 | 7.5327 | Release ↗ |
| 2025 | 8.2788 | 65.9890 | 5.8770 | 6.0348 | 8.8101 | 8.3937 | 7.6632 | Release ↗ |
First-tier city snapshot
| City | New MoM | New YoY | Second-hand MoM | Second-hand YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing | 99.6 | 97.6 | 98.7 | 91.5 |
| Shanghai | 100.2 | 104.8 | 99.4 | 93.9 |
| Guangzhou | 99.4 | 95.2 | 99.0 | 92.2 |
| Shenzhen | 99.5 | 95.6 | 99.4 | 94.6 |
Downloads and revisions
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Public record
Extended the official Ministry of Finance land-use-right transfer revenue series from 2020-2025 to a continuous 2012-2025 sequence using final-account or budget-execution values at published precision for historical years. No interpolation is used, and the measure remains fiscal revenue rather than residential land supply or transaction volume. Earlier years are not appended where accessible publications expose accounting-scope ambiguity.
Related sources: Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance data via National Development and Reform Commission republication ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Added 168 quarterly observations for the BIS selected China nominal and real residential property price indices from 2005Q2 to 2026Q1. The page and formal metadata explicitly mark the 2016Q1 change from 70-city newly constructed residential buildings to 70-city existing residential buildings. OECD Analytical HPI is archived only as a research cross-check and is not spliced into the BIS series.
Related sources: Bank for International Settlements ↗ · Bank for International Settlements ↗ · Bank for International Settlements ↗ · OECD ↗ · OECD ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Added seven bilingual, data-derived reading conclusions that distinguish long-run co-movement from causal claims, quantify the post-2021 activity reversal, and preserve all existing measurement boundaries. No formal housing or long-cycle data point changed.
Related sources: Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance data via National Development and Reform Commission republication ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · People's Bank of China data via China Securities Journal ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Yueyang Municipal government ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Huangshi Municipal housing authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Wuhan Municipal government ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Guangdong Provincial financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Guangdong Provincial financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Suzhou Municipal financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Beijing Municipal financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Beijing Municipal government republication ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Wuhan Municipal government republication ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Shanghai Municipal financial authority republication ↗ · People's Bank of China ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Shanghai Municipal financial authority republication ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Extended the national NBS real-estate cycle from 2021-2025 to 2011-2025 using ten additional archived annual releases. Investment, construction, starts, completions, sales, completed-but-unsold floorspace, developer funding, climate index and derived transaction-value averages now cover 15 years; the 70-city price section remains a December 2025 official snapshot.
Related sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Added the officially published 2023-2025 annual floor area of urban second-hand housing transactions recorded through online signing. The series is published in the NBS annual national statistical communique and attributed there to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. It remains separate from new-commercial-housing sales floor area, housing stock, vacancy and residential price indexes.
Related sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Filled the urbanization series to a complete 1988-2025 annual sequence, M2 to a complete 1990-2025 year-end sequence, and personal housing loans to a complete 2015-2025 year-end segment while preserving the 2004 historical anchor and 2022Q3 phase-high observation. No interpolation was used; the 2014 mortgage year remains intentionally missing because published values use conflicting institution-coverage scopes.
Related sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · People's Bank of China data via China Securities Journal ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Yueyang Municipal government ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Huangshi Municipal housing authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Wuhan Municipal government ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Guangdong Provincial financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Guangdong Provincial financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Suzhou Municipal financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Beijing Municipal financial authority ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Beijing Municipal government republication ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Wuhan Municipal government republication ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Shanghai Municipal financial authority republication ↗ · People's Bank of China ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Shanghai Municipal financial authority republication ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Added audited long-cycle context for national commercial-housing average sales price, urbanization, three method-separated urban housing-area measures, M2, personal housing loans and land-use-right transfer revenue. Missing years remain missing and method breaks are explicit.
Related sources: Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance data via National Development and Reform Commission republication ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · Ministry of Finance of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Beijing Municipal government republication ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Wuhan Municipal government republication ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Shanghai Municipal financial authority republication ↗ · People's Bank of China ↗ · People's Bank of China data via Shanghai Municipal financial authority republication ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Prepared 2021-2025 national investment, construction, sales, unsold floorspace and developer-funding series, plus December 2025 residential price indexes for 70 cities.
Related sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗ · National Bureau of Statistics of China ↗
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed
Added page-level formal-data CSV files, chart-level CSV/PNG/SVG exports and a bilingual revision timeline to all indicator pages.
Sources and definitions registered; automated checks passed